Cobalt Prices Decline Amid Supply-Demand Mismatch - August 25, 2026

Analysis of Latest Tungsten Market from Chinatungsten Online

Competition within the tungsten industry chain has intensified, yet there is a lack of clear directional momentum. Absent distinct external catalysts or structural shifts in supply and demand, market dynamics are largely driven by strategic maneuvering and sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term as the market awaits clearer directional signals.

Upstream tungsten ore producers are reluctant to sell at low prices, providing a key floor for current tungsten product prices. Prices for 30% grade tungsten concentrate are hovering around RMB 400,000/standard ton, while grades above 55% are trading near RMB 420,000/standard ton. Intermediate smelters face margin compression due to the conflict between high costs and weak demand, dampening production enthusiasm. Negotiated prices for ammonium paratungstate (APT) are centering around RMB 600,000/ton. The tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors are primarily operating on a back-to-back trading basis (matching purchases to sales), with some players securing orders by cutting costs. Market activity remains cautious and demand-driven, failing to provide a significant boost to prices. While there is slightly more room for negotiation in the tungsten scrap market, significant price drops are constrained by recycling costs and market sentiment.

The cobalt market remains in a weak, downward trend. On the supply side, policy approvals and logistics in major producing regions like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Indonesia have gradually eased, leading to expectations of increased supply in the third quarter. Coupled with the release of recycled materials, overall supply is relatively ample. On the demand side, feedback from key downstream sectors—such as consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and cemented carbide—has been lackluster. This has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, making it difficult for cobalt prices to shake off downward pressure in the short term. Cobalt powder is currently quoted at RMB 430/kg, marking a cumulative decline of 25.9% in the current cycle.

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, although China’s power battery installation volume maintained year-on-year growth in July 2026, the share of ternary batteries continued to contract. In July, China’s power battery installation volume reached 74.6 GWh, down 2.5% month-on-month and up 33.5% year-on-year. Of this, ternary battery installations totaled 11.1 GWh, accounting for 14.9% of total installations—down 12.1% month-on-month and up 1.8% year-on-year. In the consumer electronics sector, counterpoint forecasts that the global smartphone market will decline 14.3% year-on-year in 2026, constrained by rising component costs, reduced supply of low-priced devices, and weakened consumer purchasing power. These signals indicate a seasonal demand lull in tungsten- and cobalt-related downstream application sectors.

Prices of Tungsten Products on August 25, 2026

Tungsten Price Trend from January to August 2026

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